Applied Research in Water Engineering

Applied Research in Water Engineering

Forecasting the State of Climate Warming Using Time Series Analysis (Case Study: Aligudarz)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Department of Water Science and Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
Abstract
The phenomenon of global warming has always affected different parts of the world. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate and predict the factors affecting it in different regions. In this study, the ARIMA time series method was used in order to investigate the future temperature changes in Aligudarz, Lorestan, Iran. For this purpose, the temperature data in the period of 1990-2021 was used from Aligudarz station. The results of the time series investigation showed that the model with the value of autocorrelation component=1, moving average=1 and differentiation=1 had the best result, so the forecasting was done with ARIMA (1,1,1) model. The forecast results showed that in the next five years (2022-2026) the temperature will decrease. In general, the results of this study showed the acceptable effectiveness of the time series model in temperature forecasting.
Keywords
Subjects

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Volume 1, Issue 2
March 2024
Pages 93-107

  • Receive Date 15 February 2024
  • Revise Date 03 March 2024
  • Accept Date 05 March 2024