تحلیل فراوانی توام دبی-دبی رسوب مبتنی بر مفصل در زیرحوضه قلعه شاهرخ زاینده رود

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 پژوهشگر پسادکتری، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران.

10.22034/arwe.2024.709854

چکیده

رابطه دبی-بار معلق رسوب در حوضه­های آبریز با توجه به آورد رودخانه­ها و تغییرات طبیعی و غیرطبیعی منجر به ارائه رابطه دقیق نمی­شود، لذا نیاز است از روش­های جدید برای توسعه این بخش استفاده کرد. روش­های چند متغیره و شبیه­سازی و مدل­سازی مبتنی بر توابع مفصل به دلیل درنظر گرفتن توزیع داده­ها می­تواند در این خصوص مورد توجه قرار گیرد. در این مطالعه جهت شبیه­سازی و تحلیل فراوانی توام دبی-بار معلق رسوب و برآورد احتمالات شرطی در زیرحوضه قلعه شاهرخ، حوضه آبریز سد زاینده­رود از توابع مفصل دو بعدی در دوره آماری 2019-2010 استفاده شد. ضمن بررسی وابستگی جفت متغیر مورد مطالعه و انتخاب توزیع­های حاشیه­ای متناسب، مفصل فرانک با توجه به مقادیر RMSE و NSE به عنوان مفصل برتر در تحلیل فراوانی توام جفت متغیر دبی-بار معلق رسوب انتخاب شد. با استفاده از پارامترهای منتخب اقدام به شبیه­سازی توام جفت متغیر دبی-بار معلق رسوب با احتمالات بیش از 80 درصد در ایستگاه منتخب شد به طوری که با احتمالات بیش از 80 درصد می­توان مقادیر بار معلق رسوب را به شرط وقوع دبی جریان در ایستگاه تخمین زد. در نهایت با احتمالات 95-90 و 99-95 درصد روابط پیش­بینی بار معلق رسوب به شرط وقوع دبی جریان در منطقه مورد مطالعه پیشنهاد گردید که به ترتیب کارایی 84 و 82 درصد را با توجه به آماره نش-ساتکلیف را ارائه کرد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Joint Frequency Analysis of River Flow-Suspended Sediment Load Based on Copula Functions in the Zayanderood Sub-Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi 1
  • Rasoul Mirabbasi 2
1 Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Water Engineering, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran
چکیده [English]

The river flow-suspended sediment load relationship in basins due to the rivers flow and natural and unnatural changes does not lead to providing an accurate relationship, so it is necessary to use new methods for the development of this sector. Multivariate methods and simulation and modeling based on copula functions can be considered in this regard due to the consideration of data distribution. In this study, two-dimensional copula functions were used in the period of 2010-2019 in order to simulate and joint frequency analysis of river flow-suspended sediment load and estimate the conditional probabilities in the sub-basin of Qale-Shahrokh, Zayanderood Dam basin. While examining the dependence of the studied pair-variable and choosing appropriate marginal distributions, Frank's copula was selected as the best copula in joint frequency analysis of the pair-variable of discharge-suspended sediment load according to the RMSE and NSE values. By using the selected parameters, the simulation of the studied pair-variable of river flow-suspended sediment load with the probability of more than 80% was carried out in the selected station. So that with a probability of more than 80%, it is possible to estimate the amount of suspended sediment load given by the river flow in studied station. Finally, with the probabilities of 90-95% and 95-99%, it was suggested that the equation of forecasting suspended sediment load given by the corresponding river flow in the study area, which presented the efficiency of 84% and 82%, respectively, according to the Nash-Sutcliffe statistic.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Frank copula
  • Probabilistic analysis
  • Return period
  • Suspended Sediment load

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پژوهش های کاربردی مهندسی آب
دوره 1، شماره 1
اسفند 1402
صفحه 1-12

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 07 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 26 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 30 مهر 1402

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