تعیین مناطق مستعد سیل با استفاده از مدل تابع شواهد قطعی (مطالعه موردی دشت سیلاخور در استان لرستان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، گروه مهندسی مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، لرستان، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، لرستان، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، لرستان، ایران .

10.22034/arwe.2024.2020836.1010

چکیده

اولین گام در جهت کاهش آثار زیانبار سیل، شناخت مناطق مستعد بروز سیل  و مدیریت سیلاب است. مدیریت سیلاب از اقدامات اساسی در برنامه‌ریزی منابع آب است که برای کمینه کردن خسارات بالقوه و رسیدن به توسعه پایدار جوامع به کار می رود. در این مطالعه نقشه استعداد سیل برای بازه 10 کیلومتری از رودخانه سیلاخور (مساحتی برابر با 73 کیلومترمربع)، به کمک مدل تابع شواهد قطعی [1]((EBF تهیه شد. پس از روی هم‌گذاری نقاط سیل اتفاق افتاده در منطقه در گذشته بعنوان نقاط گروه آموزش و نقشه‌های عوامل موثر بر سیلگیری شامل ارتفاع، شیب، جهت شیب، فاصله از رودخانه، تراکم زهکشی و شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافی، نقشه استعداد سیل منطقه مطالعاتی تهیه شد. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از اعتبارسنجی (استفاده از برخی از نقاط سیل اتفاق افتاده در منطقه در گذشته که در آموزش کنار گذاشته شده بودند)، مدل EBF با سطح زیر منحنی %76 قابلیت خوبی در نمایش مناطق مستعد سیل دارد. همچنین، نتایج حاصل از تحقیق نشان داد که ارتفاع از سطح دریا، فاصله از رودخانه و تراکم زهکشی عوامل بسیار تاثیرگذار در استعداد سیل‌گیری منطقه هستند.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determining Flood-Prone Areas Using Evidential Belief Function Model (Case Study: Silakhor Plain in Lorestan Province, Iran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Falah 1
  • Hossein Zeinivand 2
  • Nasser Tahmasebipour 2
  • Ali Haghizadeh 3
1 PhD student in Watershed Management Engineering, Department of Range & Watershed Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Range & Watershed Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Range & Watershed Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

First step in reducing the destructive effects of flood is identifying flood prone areas and flood management. Flood management is one of the basic measures in water resources planning, which is used to minimize potential damages and achieve sustainable development of communities. In this study susceptible areas to flood for a 10 km reach of Silakhor River (73 km2) was mapped using Evidential Belief Function (EBF) model. For this purpose, flood points of the study area (training and testing sets), were overlaid with the maps of flood influential factors including: elevation, slope, aspect, distance from river, river density and topographic wetness index and the map of susceptible areas to flood was prepared. According to validation result (using flood points that were not used for training phase) the EBF model with AUC value of 76% is suitable for identifying prone areas to flood. Also, the results of the research showed that the elevation, the distance from the river and the drainage density are very influential factors in the region's flood proneness.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Flooding
  • Silakhor
  • Statistical model
  • Validation
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