Identification of Small and Large Fluctuations of the Daily Rainfall  Time Series of Poldokhtar

Mirhashemi, Hamid

doi:10.22034/arwe.2024.2035302.1018

Identification of Small and Large Fluctuations of the Daily Rainfall Time Series of Poldokhtar

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Hamid Mirhashemi

Geography Department,-The Faculty of Literature and Humanities,-Lorestan University-Khorramabad-Iran

10.22034/arwe.2024.2035302.1018

Abstract

Precipitation is considered as the most important factor in shaping the state of climate and the change of water on the surface of the earth, the surface of the soil and the atmosphere. fluctuating and multiscale signal appears, which has strong local fluctuations. In this study, in order to detect extreme large and small fluctuations in the daily precipitation time series of Poldokhtar synoptic station, two approaches of multifractal analysis of detrended fluctuations (MF-DFA) and discrete wavelet analysis with maximum overlap (MODWT) were used. The results of the analysis of annual fluctuations, two, four, eight and 12 years indicate the existence of three fluctuation periods in the precipitation signal for the annual scale. So that the fluctuations in the first period have a relatively regular behavior with a constant trend, in the second period they have a decreasing trend and finally in the third period they have an increasing and highly fluctuating trend. Extreme large fluctuations have a maximum in 2018-2019 and extreme small fluctuations have a maximum in 2011. Also, the results of the analysis of fluctuations in the time scales of one to 12 years show a decrease in extreme small fluctuations and an increase in extreme large fluctuations, and in the periods when there was an increase in precipitation, there was an intense increase in large fluctuations and the periods that were parallel to an intense decrease in precipitation, extreme small fluctuations also show an intense increase.

Highlights

De Lima, M. I. P., & De Lima, J. L. M. P. (2009). Investigating the multifractality of point precipitation in the Madeira archipelago. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 16(2), 299-311.

García‐Marín, A. P., Jiménez‐Hornero, F. J., & Ayuso, J. L. (2008). Applying multifractality and the self‐organized criticality theory to describe the temporal rainfall regimes in Andalusia (southern Spain). Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 22(2), 295-308.

Kantelhardt, J. W., Koscielny-Bunde, E., Rego, H. H., Havlin, S., & Bunde, A. (2001). Detecting long-range correlations with detrended fluctuation analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 295(3-4), 441-454.

Lark, R. M., & Webster, R. (2001). Changes in variance and correlation of soil properties with scale and location: analysis using an adapted maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform. European journal of soil science, 52(4), 547-562.

Mirhashemi, H. (2021). Identification of structural breaks and change points of rainfall time series in mountainous areas (Case study: Khorramabad Synoptic Station). Journal of the Geographical Studies of Mountainous Areas, 1(4), 1-16.‎ (In Persian)

Mirhashemi, H., & Yarahmadi, D. (2021). Multifractal analysis of daily precipitation of selected stations in the west - southwest of Iran. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 47(3), 485-499. (In Persian).

Movahed, M. S., Jafari, G. R., Ghasemi, F., Rahvar, S., & Tabar, M. R. R. (2006). Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of sunspot time series. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2006(02), P02003.

Percival, D. B., & Walden, A. T. (2000). Wavelet methods for time series analysis (Vol. 4). Cambridge university press.

Pierini, J. O., & Telesca, L. (2010). Fluctuation analysis of monthly rainfall time series. Fluctuation and Noise Letters, 9(02), 219-228.

Valencia, J. L., Requejo, A. S., Gascó, J. M., & Tarquis, A. M. (2010). A universal multifractal description applied to precipitation patterns of the Ebro River Basin, Spain. Climate Research, 44(1), 17-25.

Walther, G. R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J., ... & Bairlein, F. (2002). Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416(6879), 389-395.

Zhang, X., Zhang, G., Qiu, L., Zhang, B., Sun, Y., Gui, Z., & Zhang, Q. (2019). A modified multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) approach for multifractal analysis of precipitation in dongting lake basin, China. Water, 11(5), 891.

Zhao, G. Hörmann, G. Fohrer, N. Zhang, Z. & Zhai, J. (2010). Streamflow Trends and Climate Variability Impacts in Poyang Lake Basin, China. Water Resources Management. 24(4): 689-706.

Keywords

Fluctuation

Frequency

Poldokhtar

Precipitation

Wavelet

Subjects